East 18th St. by the Numbers

Poring over tax records is not the most glamorous part of prepping a story. But hours of data entry and squinting at numbers pay off as the numbers coalesce and begin to tell a story.

Travis County tax records for the 2200 block of E. 18th St. tell the story of a neighborhood in the midst of a transition of some years. But with ground broken on the first new construction in decades, this quiet eastside block is on the verge of huge change.

In fact, if property trends continue as they have, folks won’t recognize this block in ten years.

In the past five years, E. 18th St. has changed in ways consistent with the patterns of gentrifying neighborhoods. Between 2000 and 2001, average values for homes in the 2200 block of E. 18th St. jumped by 45%. Between 2000 and 2005, values almost doubled.

This increase in home values is not unusual (as the housing market in American cities has grown at an unprecedented rate over the past five years, due largely to the tail-end of the internet boom and historically low interest rates in the wake of September 11). However, neighborhoods like the 2200 block of Chestnut Street in East are particularly likely to change in the wake of such a housing boom

Tax records show that ownership of 9 of the 14 houses on the block changed hands within the last five years. Today, there are only 7 owner-occupied homes on the block.

The owner-occupancy rate has much to tell about the way a neighborhood is changing. Here on 18th, when the housing market began to boom, bringing the first wave of property-tax increases, owner-occupancy rates declined as residents sold their homes.

Some optimists (or euphemists, as the case may be) say that this wave of sales is a positive trend; they laud the fact that long-time owners are able to sell their homes for far more than they bought them for. The less optimistic (and probably more realistic) perspective is that long-time residents are forced to sell in such a market upswing because their property taxes become unwieldy.

The second wave of E. 18th’s change will likely bring a new increase in the owner-occupancy rate as new construction in the area begins. Builders already own two lots on the block, and construction has commenced on one. New construction in the area has sold for upwards of $250K, more than twice the current median home value in the area.

So it looks like the change is going to keep on coming.

The sale of two brand-new homes in the area would likely have a significant impact on home values on this block. And it is axiomatic that new construction begets more new construction and remodeling, especially with several new commercial projects planned in the neighborhood.

The numbers tell us that E. 18th St. is really a neighborhood on the verge: still diverse, but poised for a big shift that could quickly tip the dynamic of change from transitional to fully gentrified.

E. 18th St. Median Home Values: 2000-2005
2000 Median Value $38,689
2003 Median Value $74,323
2005 Median Value $92,447